The card
Hammer · 2u
Lions −6 71%
Model says −8.5. Market is giving you two and a half points of respect for a public road dog.
DET vs GB · Sun 1:00 ET · Take to −6.5 · Pass at −7
Play · 1u
Chiefs −2.5
68% · Sun 4:25 ET
Public money bought this back from −3.5. You're getting a point of noise.
Play · 1u
Ravens −3
64% · Sun 8:20 ET
Sharp steam moved this onto the key number. Sit at 3, don't chase.
Lean · 0.5u
Over 46.5 (SF @ SEA)
62% · MNF 8:15 ET
Two points of weather tax on a 62° calm night. The forecast is the edge.
Lean · 0.5u
Eagles −3.5
59% · Sun 4:25 ET
Better roster, wrong price. Small only, and gone at −4.
Sizing: Hammer 2u · Play 1u · Lean 0.5u. One hammer per card, max. Size it like we do or don't use the card.
Why the numbers are wrong
Hammer · 2u
Lions −6
Green Bay at Ford Field · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Spread · 71%
Model wants −8.5. The market is holding at −6 into 72% public money on Green Bay — that's respect for the dog you don't have to pay for.
The number: Take to −6.5. Pass at −7.
- Four of the last five at Ford Field were Detroit by 10+.
- Green Bay needs the deep ball; Detroit takes it away indoors better than anyone.
- Packers' receiver room is thin this week. The one thing they do isn't available.
Home ATS, last 16DET 12-4
Points per driveDET 2.61 · GB 1.94
Market vs model−6 vs −8.5
FTN · rbsdm EPA · Caesars · ESPN (illustrative)
Play · 1u
Chiefs −2.5
Kansas City at SoFi · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Spread · 68%
This opened −3.5 and got bet down by loud Herbert money while 64% of tickets sit on the Chargers. When the public piles on and the number won't move their way, take the other side.
The number: Take at −2.5. Fine to −3. Pass at −3.5.
- Chargers' interior OL injuries force max-protect — it kills the deep shot the public is pricing in.
- KC allows pressure at a 19% clip (6th); LAC allows 32% (27th). Trench mismatch.
- Reverse line movement: heavy LAC tickets, number still hanging at −2.5.
EPA/play, last 6KC +0.14 · LAC +0.02
Pressure rate allowedKC 19% · LAC 32%
Line move−3.5 → −2.5 on public LAC
DVOA · Next Gen · DraftKings · Action Network (illustrative)
Play · 1u
Ravens −3
Buffalo at M&T Bank · Sunday night 8:20 PM ET · Spread · 64%
Books that don't move for fun steamed this from −2.5 to −3. Buffalo's tackle rotation is unsettled, and if the edge isn't clean, Allen's hero ball is the whole offense.
The number: Take −3 flat. Do not buy to −3.5. Pass past 3.
- Baltimore's front four vs a Bills tackle group that isn't settled.
- Lamar's designed-run game has been the night-game script that covers 3.
- Baltimore is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home night games.
Def DVOABAL +22.0 · BUF +7.4
Home night ATSBAL 9-3 last 12
Line move−2.5 → −3 on sharp steam
DVOA · PFF · FanDuel · BetMGM (illustrative)
Lean · 0.5u
Over 46.5 — 49ers / Seahawks
Monday night at Lumen · 8:15 PM ET · Total · 62%
The total opened 48.5 and got crushed on "Seattle weather" talk. Forecast: 62°, 6 mph, no rain. You're being paid two points for weather that doesn't exist.
The number: Take to 47. Pass at 47.5.
- Two top-pace offenses that both throw in a neutral script.
- Both QBs are plus-EPA when the game is within one score after halftime.
- Model total is 49.2 against a 46.5 market.
Model vs market49.2 vs 46.5
Neutral-script pass rateSF 58% · SEA 61%
Forecast62°F · 6 mph · 0% precip
NOAA · Next Gen · FanDuel · Action Network (illustrative)
Lean · 0.5u
Eagles −3.5
Philadelphia at AT&T Stadium · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Spread · 59%
Philly is the more complete roster and Dallas can't finish drives — but 3.5 is a sweaty number in a loud building. This is the softest play on the card. Size it that way.
The number: We want −3. Playable small at −3.5. Pass at −4.
- Eagles' trench advantage travels, even in this building.
- Dallas red-zone defense keeps trading touchdowns for field goals.
- Lowest confidence on the slate — half a unit, no more.
Off EPA/playPHI +0.11 · DAL +0.04
Red-zone TD%PHI 64% · DAL 51%
H2H last 4PHI 3-1 ATS
rbsdm · Sharp Football · DraftKings (illustrative)