The Vegas Refund
NFL Sunday card
Week 1 sample · September 7, 2026 · 5 plays, sized
Next-gen sample — not live bets
The card
Hammer · 2u
Lions −6 71%
Model says −8.5. Market is giving you two and a half points of respect for a public road dog.
DET vs GB · Sun 1:00 ET · Take to −6.5 · Pass at −7
Play · 1u Chiefs −2.5 68% · Sun 4:25 ET
Public money bought this back from −3.5. You're getting a point of noise.
Play · 1u Ravens −3 64% · Sun 8:20 ET
Sharp steam moved this onto the key number. Sit at 3, don't chase.
Lean · 0.5u Over 46.5 (SF @ SEA) 62% · MNF 8:15 ET
Two points of weather tax on a 62° calm night. The forecast is the edge.
Lean · 0.5u Eagles −3.5 59% · Sun 4:25 ET
Better roster, wrong price. Small only, and gone at −4.
Sizing: Hammer 2u · Play 1u · Lean 0.5u. One hammer per card, max. Size it like we do or don't use the card.